Rowing needs a standardized Gold Medal Standard (GMS) to clearly compare performance across boat classes in competition. Here, we report a method to factor out environmental effects, developing a fairer GMS for individual rowing events. We used results from World Rowing Championships and Olympics Games (2005–2016) to calculate the difference between the fastest winning time of the day and other event winning times on the same day. From this, we calculated a prognostic GMS time for each event via repeated k-fold cross-validation linear regression. Then, we compared these values with the 10-year average winning time and the World Best Time (WBT). We repeated this process to develop prognostic podium standard (PS) times. The prognostic GMS times (RMSE = 9.47; R 2 = 0.875) were universally slower than the WBT (current GMS) by 6.2 s on average but faster than the 10-year average by 12.3 s. The prognostic PS times (RMSE = 10.5; R 2 = 897) were also slower than the WBT but faster than the 10-year average, by 12.2 and 6.3 s respectively. Our time-difference prediction model based on historical data generates non-outlier prognostic times. With the utilization of relative time difference, this approach promises a selection standard independent of environmental conditions, easily applicable across different sports.

中文翻译：

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在竞技赛艇比赛中实现更客观的时间标准

赛艇运动需要一个标准化的金牌标准 (GMS) 来清楚地比较不同船类在比赛中的表现。在这里，我们报告了一种排除环境影响的方法，为个别赛艇赛事开发了一个更公平的 GMS。我们使用世界赛艇锦标赛和奥运会（2005-2016）的结果来计算当天最快获胜时间与当天其他赛事获胜时间之间的差异。由此，我们通过重复的 k 折交叉验证线性回归计算每个事件的预后 GMS 时间。然后，我们将这些值与 10 年平均获胜时间和世界最佳时间 (WBT) 进行了比较。我们重复此过程以制定预后领奖台标准 (PS) 时间。预后 GMS 时间（RMSE = 9.47；R 2 = 0.875）普遍比 WBT（当前 GMS）慢 6。平均 2 秒，但比 10 年平均值快 12.3 秒。预后 PS 时间（RMSE = 10.5；R 2 = 897）也比 WBT 慢，但比 10 年平均值快，分别为 12.2 和 6.3 秒。我们基于历史数据的时差预测模型生成非异常预测时间。通过利用相对时差，这种方法保证了一个独立于环境条件的选择标准，易于适用于不同的运动项目。