Abstract

We analyze the supply-side disruptions associated with COVID-19. We find that sectors in which a higher fraction of the workforce is not able to work remotely experienced greater declines in employment and expected revenue growth, worse stock market performance, and higher likelihood of default. The stock market overweights low-exposure industries. Thus, our findings cast light on the disconnect between stock market indices and aggregate outcomes. We combine these ex ante heterogeneous industry exposures with daily financial market data to create a stock return portfolio that tracks news about the supply-side disruptions resulting from the pandemic. (JEL G12, D22, H25, J20, E00)

中文翻译：

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远程工作和 COVID-19 的供应方影响

摘要

我们分析了与 COVID-19 相关的供应方中断。我们发现，无法远程工作的劳动力比例较高的行业就业率和预期收入增长下降幅度更大，股市表现更差，违约可能性更高。股市增持低风险行业。因此，我们的研究结果揭示了股票市场指数与总体结果之间的脱节。我们将这些事前异构行业风险敞口与每日金融市场数据相结合，创建一个股票回报投资组合，跟踪有关大流行导致的供应方面中断的新闻。( JEL G12, D22, H25, J20, E00)