We estimate the effect of the ACA’s individual mandate on insurance coverage using regression discontinuity and regression kink designs with tax return data. We have four key results. First, the actual penalty paid per uninsured month is less than half the statutory amount. Second, nonetheless, we find visually clear and statistically signifi-cant responses to both extensive margin exposure to the mandate and to marginal increases in the mandate penalty. Third, we find substantial heterogeneity in who responds; men are especially responsive. Fourth, our estimates imply fairly small quantitative responses to the individual mandate, especially in the Health Insurance Exchanges. (JEL G22, H24, H51, I13, I18)

中文翻译：

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个人授权会影响保险范围吗？纳税申报表的证据

我们使用回归不连续性和回归扭结设计以及纳税申报数据来估计 ACA 的个人授权对保险范围的影响。我们有四个关键结果。首先，每个未投保月支付的实际罚款不到法定金额的一半。其次，尽管如此，我们发现对授权的广泛保证金敞口和授权罚款的边际增加都有视觉上清晰且具有统计意义的反应。第三，我们发现响应者存在很大的异质性；男人特别敏感。第四，我们的估计意味着对个人授权的定量反应相当小，尤其是在健康保险交易所。(JEL G22, H24, H51, I13, I18)