Given a scarcity of journal space, what is the optimal rule for whether an empirical finding should be published? Suppose publications inform the public about a policy-relevant state. Then journals should publish extreme results, meaning ones that move beliefs sufficiently. This optimal rule may take the form of a one- or two-sided test comparing a point estimate to the prior mean, with critical values determined by a cost-benefit analysis. Consideration of future studies may additionally justify the publication of precise null results. If one insists that standard inference remain valid, however, publication must not select on the study’s findings. (JEL D61, D82, D83, L82)

中文翻译：

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应该公布哪些调查结果？

鉴于期刊空间稀缺，是否应该发表实证发现的最佳规则是什么？假设出版物向公众通报了与政策相关的国家。然后期刊应该发表极端的结果，即充分改变信念的结果。该最佳规则可以采用单边或双边测试的形式，将点估计与先前的平均值进行比较，临界值由成本效益分析确定。对未来研究的考虑可能会额外证明发布精确的无效结果是合理的。但是，如果有人坚持标准推论仍然有效，则不得选择发表研究的结果。(JEL D61, D82, D83, L82)