This paper develops a dynamic structural model of trade in which firms slowly accumulate consumers in foreign markets. Estimating the model using export data from individual firms and a particle Markov chain Monte Carlo estimator, the model predicts lower survival rates for new exporters and estimates low entry costs of exporting—less than half of those estimated in the absence of consumer accumulation. Using simulations and out-of-sample predictions, I show that the introduction of such frictions and the reduction in estimated entry costs allow the model to match important facts regarding the aggregate response of international trade to shocks. (JEL D22, F12, F14, L66)

中文翻译：

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具有消费者积累的贸易经验动态模型

本文开发了一个动态的贸易结构模型，其中公司在国外市场上慢慢积累消费者。该模型使用来自个别公司的出口数据和粒子马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗估计量来估计模型，该模型预测新出口商的生存率较低，并估计出口的进入成本较低——不到没有消费者积累的估计值的一半。通过模拟和样本外预测，我表明引入此类摩擦和降低估计的进入成本使模型能够匹配有关国际贸易对冲击的总体反应的重要事实。(JEL D22, F12, F14, L66)