The Allais Paradox, or the common consequence effect, is a well-known behavioral regularity in individual decision-making under risk. Data from 81 experiments reported in 29 studies reveal that the Allais Paradox is a fragile empirical finding. The Allais Paradox is likely to be observed in experiments with high hypothetical payoffs, the medium outcome being close to the highest outcome and when lotteries are presented as a probability distribution (not in a compound form). The Allais Paradox is likely to be reversed in experiments when the probability mass is equally split between the lowest and highest outcomes in risky lotteries. (JEL D44, D81)

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关于阿莱悖论的实验稳健性

阿莱悖论或共同后果效应是风险下个人决策中众所周知的行为规律。29 项研究报告的 81 项实验的数据表明，阿莱悖论是一个脆弱的实证发现。阿莱悖论很可能在具有高假设收益的实验中观察到，中等结果接近最高结果，并且当彩票呈现为概率分布（而不是复合形式）时。当概率质量在风险彩票的最低和最高结果之间平均分配时，阿莱悖论很可能在实验中被逆转。(JEL D44, D81)