How do citizens in authoritarian states feel about their leaders? While some dictators rule through terror, others seem genuinely popular. Using the Gallup World Poll’s panel of more than one hundred-forty countries in 2006–2016, the authors show that the drivers of political approval differ across regime types. Although brutal repression in overt dictatorships could cause respondents to falsify their preferences, in milder informational autocracies, greater repression actually predicts lower approval. In autocracies as in democracies, economic performance matters and citizens’ economic perceptions, while not perfectly accurate, track objective indicators. Dictators also benefit from greater perceived public safety, but the authors find no such effect in democracies. Covert censorship of the media and the Internet is associated with higher approval in autocracies—in particular, in informational ones—but ratings fall when citizens recognize censorship. In informational autocracies, executive elections trigger a ratings surge if there is leader turnover, but, unlike in democracies, reelected autocrats enjoy little honeymoon.

中文翻译：

---

威权领导人的受欢迎程度

威权国家的公民如何看待他们的领导人？虽然一些独裁者通过恐怖统治，但其他人似乎真的很受欢迎。作者使用盖洛普世界民意调查小组在 2006 年至 2016 年对 140 多个国家进行的调查显示，政治支持的驱动因素因政权类型而异。尽管在公开独裁统治下的残酷镇压可能会导致受访者伪造他们的偏好，但在温和的信息专制国家中，更大的镇压实际上预示着较低的支持率。在专制政体和民主政体中，经济绩效和公民的经济观念虽然不是完全准确，但也很重要，但它们会跟踪客观指标。独裁者也受益于更大的公共安全意识，但作者发现民主国家没有这种影响。对媒体和互联网的秘密审查与专制国家的较高认可度相关——尤其是在信息领域——但当公民承认审查制度时，收视率就会下降。在信息专制国家，如果领导人更替，行政选举会引发收视率飙升，但与民主国家不同，连任的独裁者很少度蜜月。