The study examines the impact of climate variables on wheat production in 10 major wheat-producing districts of Pakistan. In doing so, we apply the Driscoll–Kraay approach to estimate the panel data from 1981 to 2019. Our empirical analysis reveals that climate variables, including temperature, rainfall and humidity, follow a common correlation across districts. We find that wheat productivity and temperature, as well as rainfall, follow an inverted U-shaped relation. The response of the wheat productivity is quadratic rather than linear towards average temperature and rainfall during the specific time of cultivation, including planting, flowering and harvesting. Besides, fertilizer use promotes and humidity impedes wheat productivity. Our findings are robust considering heterogeneity, serial correlation and spatial dependency.

中文翻译：

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小麦产量对气候模式的反应：来自巴基斯坦地区的证据

该研究考察了气候变量对巴基斯坦 10 个主要小麦产区小麦生产的影响。在此过程中，我们应用 Driscoll-Kraay 方法来估计 1981 年至 2019 年的面板数据。我们的实证分析表明，包括温度、降雨量和湿度在内的气候变量在各地区之间具有共同的相关性。我们发现小麦生产力和温度以及降雨量呈倒 U 型关系。在特定的种植时间，包括种植、开花和收获，小麦生产力对平均温度和降雨量的响应是二次的，而不是线性的。此外，化肥的使用促进了小麦的生产力，而湿度阻碍了小麦的生产力。考虑到异质性、序列相关性和空间依赖性，我们的研究结果是稳健的。