The undersea volcano, located in the South Pacific island nation of Tonga, violently erupted from 14 to 15 January 2022. The Tonga volcano eruption has aroused extensive discussion in the climate change field. Some climatologists believe that this event will cause little effect on global climate change while others insist that it will trigger “the year without a summer” as the Tambora eruption did in 1815. How will the Tonga volcano eruption affect global climate change? Based on the indices of past volcanic eruptions and the eruption data of El Chichón volcano in 1982, we use a simplified radiation equilibrium model to quantify the stratospheric aerosol radiative forcing and the change in global mean surface air temperature (T_s) caused by the Tonga volcano eruption. The results show that the global average T_s will decrease by about 0.0315–0.1118°C in the next 1–2 years. The Tonga eruption will slightly slow down the global warming in a short period of time, but it will not change the global warming trend in the long term. In addition, we propose a generalized approach for estimating the impact of future volcanic eruption on global mean T_s.

位于南太平洋岛国汤加的海底火山于2022年1月14日至15日猛烈喷发。汤加火山喷发引起了气候变化领域的广泛讨论。一些气候学家认为，这一事件对全球气候变化影响不大，而另一些人则坚持认为它将像1815年的坦博拉火山喷发那样引发“没有夏天的一年”。汤加火山喷发将如何影响全球气候变化？根据以往火山喷发指数和El Chichón火山1982年的喷发数据，我们采用简化的辐射平衡模型来量化平流层气溶胶辐射强迫和全球平均地表气温( T _s) 由汤加火山喷发引起。结果表明，未来1-2年全球平均Ts将下降约0.0315-0.1118°C _。汤加火山喷发会在短期内略微减缓全球变暖，但长期不会改变全球变暖趋势。此外，我们提出了一种通用方法来估计未来火山喷发对全球平均T _{s 的}影响。