Although the European Union has made notable steps towards completion of the economic and monetary union, fiscal convergence, banking union and capital markets union, potential integration of pensions and social security has not advanced as much. As the European Union countries have experienced increased migration/refugee flows over the last decade, the question is whether migrants/refugees can influence the adequacy of member-state pension schemes and potentially allow for a Pan-European Pension Plan. Consequently, the purpose of this paper is to investigate, as a prelude to pension integration, whether immigration and emigration affect pension assets, liabilities, and the asset-liability gap and to identify the determinants of this gap. Using generalized method of moments estimation, evidence is found that increases in immigration and decreases in emigration (as a percent of the population) lead to an increase in the assets of autonomous pension funds. Analogously, increases in valid permits (as a percent of the population) and decreases in unemployment (as a percent of the labor force) result in a decrease in liabilities (benefits) of autonomous pension funds. The novelties of this study are the identification of factors that affect pension assets, liabilities and the asset-liability gap at a country level and the contribution of immigration from non-EU countries to closing the asset-liability gap. The findings can be used to draft pension and migration policies at a pan-European level.

尽管欧盟在完成经济和货币联盟、财政趋同、银行联盟和资本市场联盟方面取得了显着进展，但养老金和社会保障的潜在整合并没有取得多大进展。由于欧盟国家在过去十年中经历了越来越多的移民/难民流动，问题是移民/难民是否可以影响成员国养老金计划的充分性并可能允许泛欧养老金计划。因此，作为养老金一体化的前奏，本文的目的是调查移民和移民是否会影响养老金资产、负债和资产负债差距，并确定这一差距的决定因素。使用矩估计的广义方法，有证据表明，移民的增加和移民的减少（占人口的百分比）导致自治养老基金的资产增加。类似地，有效许可证的增加（作为人口的百分比）和失业率的减少（作为劳动力的百分比）导致自治养老基金的负债（福利）减少。本研究的新颖之处在于确定了在国家层面影响养老金资产、负债和资产负债差距的因素，以及来自非欧盟国家的移民对缩小资产负债差距的贡献。研究结果可用于在泛欧层面起草养老金和移民政策。有效许可证的增加（占人口的百分比）和失业率的减少（占劳动力的百分比）导致自治养老基金的负债（福利）减少。本研究的新颖之处在于确定了在国家层面影响养老金资产、负债和资产负债差距的因素，以及来自非欧盟国家的移民对缩小资产负债差距的贡献。研究结果可用于在泛欧层面起草养老金和移民政策。有效许可证的增加（占人口的百分比）和失业率的减少（占劳动力的百分比）导致自治养老基金的负债（福利）减少。本研究的新颖之处在于确定了在国家层面影响养老金资产、负债和资产负债差距的因素，以及来自非欧盟国家的移民对缩小资产负债差距的贡献。研究结果可用于在泛欧层面起草养老金和移民政策。国家层面的负债和资产负债缺口，以及来自非欧盟国家的移民对缩小资产负债缺口的贡献。研究结果可用于在泛欧层面起草养老金和移民政策。国家层面的负债和资产负债缺口，以及来自非欧盟国家的移民对缩小资产负债缺口的贡献。研究结果可用于在泛欧层面起草养老金和移民政策。