ABSTRACT

The analyses of the cumulative sums of the observed yearly averaged atmospheric CO₂ concentrations revealed unambiguously two change points during 0–2021. The first abrupt change that occurred during 1830 delineated the starting epoch of the pre-industrial era, which is marked by a linear increase in concentrations (0.24 ± 0.01 ppm/yr.) as described by the IPCC being driven by economic and population growth. Another notable change occurred during 1943 with the start of a uniform acceleration (0.028 ± 0.000 ppm/yr²) since then. These findings bring not only clarity and precision into the IPCC’s vague statement on the topic but also alleviates the bias introduced in estimating the trend (constant velocity) of the atmospheric concentrations, which is three times larger in magnitude (0.78 ± 0.01 ppm/yr.) for the period 1830–2021 if the uniform acceleration since 1943 is not accounted for. If the increased concentrations of CO₂ before 1943 are predominantly caused by the climate system, i.e. of non-anthropogenic origin, then the concentrations will continue to increase with the constant velocity estimated in this study despite the efforts to limit the anthropogenic contributions that are the source of the uniform acceleration since 1943.

摘要

对观测到的年平均大气 CO ₂浓度累积总和的分析明确地揭示了 0-2021 年期间的两个变化点。1830 年发生的第一次突然变化描绘了前工业时代的开始时期，其标志是浓度线性增加（0.24 ± 0.01 ppm/年），正如 IPCC 所描述的，受经济和人口增长的驱动。另一个显着变化发生在 1943 年，匀加速开始（0.028 ± 0.000 ppm/yr ²） 自那时候起。这些发现不仅使 IPCC 关于该主题的模糊声明变得清晰和准确，而且减轻了在估计大气浓度趋势（恒定速度）时引入的偏差，大气浓度的幅度是其三倍（0.78 ± 0.01 ppm/年）。 ) 如果不考虑 1943 年以来的匀加速，则为 1830-2021 年期间。如果 1943 年之前 CO ₂浓度的增加主要是由气候系统引起的，即非人为来源，那么尽管努力限制人​​为贡献，但浓度将继续以本研究中估计的恒定速度增加。自 1943 年以来的匀加速源。