Purpose

The issue of capital structure among property developers in Indonesia becomes interesting as the government speeds up housing development. Examining which theory prevails (trade-off versus pecking order) can be done by looking at several determinants of capital structure. This study aims to argue that examining determinants of capital structure in this context should also incorporate business cycles, as the activities of property developers are cyclical.

Design/methodology/approach

Using a total of 183 observations of listed property developers from 2010 to 2019, this study uses the ordinary least squares regression technique. The focus is on determinants of capital structure, which are profitability, tangibility, firm size, ownership and potential growth. The observations are divided into different business cycles (expansion, peak, trough and decline) based on economic growth rates.

Findings

The results show that the natures of relationships between capital structure (leverage) and its determinants are different during distinct business cycles. For example, profitability has a significant and positive effect on leverage during peak, but the signs are negative during trough and decline. Trade-off theory provides a better explanation of property developers’ capital structure behaviour during peak while pecking order theory is more relevant during trough. It is more difficult to conclude which of these theories is superior in expansion and sideways.

Originality/value

There have been limited studies that focus on corporate finance issues of property developers in Indonesia, and no particular attention has been given to the role of business cycles.

中文翻译：

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不同商业周期中印尼房地产开发商的资本结构行为

目的

随着政府加快住房开发，印尼房地产开发商的资本结构问题变得有趣。可以通过查看资本结构的几个决定因素来检查哪种理论占上风（权衡与啄食顺序）。本研究旨在论证，在这种情况下检查资本结构的决定因素也应该考虑商业周期，因为房地产开发商的活动是周期性的。

设计/方法/途径

本研究使用普通最小二乘回归技术，对 2010 年至 2019 年上市房地产开发商的 183 次观察进行了研究。重点是资本结构的决定因素，即盈利能力、有形性、公司规模、所有权和潜在增长。观察结果根据经济增长率分为不同的商业周期（扩张、高峰、低谷和衰退）。

发现

结果表明，资本结构（杠杆）与其决定因素之间关系的性质在不同的商业周期中是不同的。例如，盈利能力在峰值期间对杠杆率有显着的正向影响，但在低谷和下降期间则为负。权衡理论更好地解释了房地产开发商在高峰期的资本结构行为，而啄食顺序理论在低谷期更为相关。很难断定这些理论中哪一个在扩展和侧向方面更优越。

原创性/价值

关注印度尼西亚房地产开发商公司财务问题的研究有限，没有特别关注商业周期的作用。