Human demand for adequate water resources and supplies has been and will continue to be a fundamental issue in the 21st century due to rapid population growth, growing economies and globalization, and increasing water pollution, among others. Water withdrawals in regions which are already encountering scarcity will impose intensifying pressure on water resources locally and globally, threatening the achievement of long-term sustainable development targets. Decoupling has increasingly been recognized and incorporated in policy making as a way to reconcile limitless economic growth with environmental pressures. Filling evident literature gaps, the current state and projected future decoupling factors of water withdrawals in relation to GDP are assessed through decoupling and regression analyzes for 155 countries and 12 potential socioeconomic development pathway scenarios. Findings suggest that average levels of water withdrawal decoupling are moderate in 2025 but will increase throughout the century in all countries. By 2075, average water withdrawal decoupling becomes common and widespread, with high decoupling factors across the world. Yet, some countries and regions will continue to lag behind in this development. GDP growth is the most significant driver of water withdrawals. Climate and regional differences among countries are major influential factors on decoupling outcomes, more so than current country-level income group classification. Altogether, these results are of high significance to water resource managers and policy actors, offering a chance to act proactively to change the course on global water resource and country-specific development. In this way, decoupling provides a pathway to a more water-wise world.

由于人口快速增长、经济增长和全球化以及水污染日益严重等，人类对充足水资源和供应的需求已经并将继续成为 21 世纪的一个基本问题。在已经面临短缺的地区取水将给当地和全球的水资源带来越来越大的压力，威胁到长期可持续发展目标的实现。脱钩已越来越多地被认可并纳入政策制定中，作为调和无限经济增长与环境压力的一种方式。填补明显的文献空白，通过对 155 个国家和 12 个潜在的社会经济发展路径情景的脱钩和回归分析，评估了当前状态和预计的未来取水量与 GDP 的脱钩因素。调查结果表明，2025 年取水脱钩的平均水平是适度的，但在整个世纪中所有国家都会增加。到 2075 年，平均取水量脱钩将变得普遍且普遍，在全球范围内具有很高的脱钩系数。然而，一些国家和地区的发展仍将滞后。GDP 增长是取水的最重要驱动力。国家之间的气候和地区差异是脱钩结果的主要影响因素，比目前的国家级收入组分类更重要。共，这些结果对水资源管理者和政策行为者具有重要意义，为主动采取行动改变全球水资源和特定国家发展进程提供了机会。通过这种方式，脱钩提供了通向更节水世界的途径。