ABSTRACT

This report explores the potential uses of low-yield nuclear weapons in the context of a possible conflict on the Korean Peninsula. It starts with a definition of low-yield weapons – typically, weapons with yields of ten kilotons or less that are designed to be nonstrategic or “tactical” weapons used with shorter-range delivery systems, prepared for the purpose of attacking troops or battlefield infrastructure. The paper then reviews the history of United States legislation regarding low-yield weapons and describes three generic scenarios in which foes possessing low-yield weapons might choose, or not choose, to use them during a military conflict. Examples of radioactive fallout maps are provided based on HYSPLIT modeling for explosions of 0, 3, and 10 kilotons at a location in the Korean demilitarized zone at different times of the year. The arsenals of low-yield weapons in the states possessing nuclear weapons in Northeast Asia, as well as the United States, are compared, and seven possible “use cases” for low-yield nuclear weapons involving the Korean Peninsula are put forward.

摘要

本报告探讨了在朝鲜半岛可能发生冲突的情况下低当量核武器的潜在用途。它首先定义了低当量武器——通常，当量为 10 千吨或以下的武器，被设计为与短程运载系统一起使用的非战略或“战术”武器，为攻击部队或战场基础设施而准备. 然后，本文回顾了美国有关低当量武器的立法历史，并描述了拥有低当量武器的敌人可能选择或不选择在军事冲突中使用它们的三种一般情况。基于 HYSPLIT 模型提供了放射性沉降图示例，用于在一年中的不同时间在韩国非军事区的一个位置发生 0、3 和 10 千吨的爆炸。