ABSTRACT

With a specially prepared dataset, we investigate whether and why EU countries implement EU policy recommendations. We focus on recommendations outside the fiscal rules and find that implementation rates are modest and worsened at a time (pre-pandemic) when the economic environment had improved and market pressure on sovereigns had subsided. We empirically test three hypotheses determining implementation: (i) legal strength of the EU process; (ii) pressure from financial markets; and (iii) macroeconomic environment. The econometric estimates indicate that a higher sovereign default probability and economic fundamentals increase the likelihood of reform.Stronger EU surveillance does not seem to drive reforms.

摘要

通过专门准备的数据集，我们调查欧盟国家是否以及为何实施欧盟政策建议。我们重点关注财政规则之外的建议，发现在经济环境有所改善且主权国家的市场压力消退时（大流行前），执行率并不高，而且还进一步恶化。我们通过实证检验了决定实施的三个假设：(i) 欧盟程序的法律强度；(ii) 来自金融市场的压力；(iii) 宏观经济环境。计量经济学估计表明，较高的主权违约概率和经济基本面增加了改革的可能性。欧盟加强监督似乎并没有推动改革。