ABSTRACT

We investigated long-term (1890–2020) frequency changes in depressions (D), cyclonic storms (CS) and severe cyclonic storms (SCS), along Odisha coast. We reviewed the fatalities, damage to properties and livestock and linked with the existing cyclone disaster management policy of the state. The decadal frequencies of D and CS show marked declining pattern after reaching their peak in 1930–1939 and 1890–1899, respectively. On an average, the SCS hits slightly more than two times per decade. No notable change in the long-term frequency of SCS was noticed, though last five decades (1970–2020) witnessed an upsurge in % contribution of SCS (13%) to the total atmospheric disturbances, and the maximum contribution (20%) was in the latest decade (2010–2020). Human fatalities exceeded more than 5000 in 1895, 1967, 1971, 1972, and 1999 cyclones. Establishment of SDMA (State Disaster Management Authority), efficient forecasting and evacuation strategies have successfully brought down the fatalities, but the loss of livestock, biodiversity, livelihoods, and infrastructure remains a concern. Decision-makers should strive to increase the resilience of at-risk communities through planting protective mangrove cover, educating and ensuring better living conditions, and implementing 4R (Robustness, Redundancy, Resourcefulness and Rapid response) resilience principles for the infrastructure.

摘要

我们调查了奥里萨邦沿岸的低气压 (D)、气旋风暴 (CS) 和强气旋风暴 (SCS) 的长期 (1890–2020) 频率变化。我们审查了死亡人数、财产损失和牲畜损失，并与该州现有的飓风灾害管理政策联系起来。D 和 CS 的年代际频率分别在 1930-1939 年和 1890-1899 年达到峰值后呈显着下降趋势。平均而言，南海海啸每十年发生两次多一点。尽管在过去五年（1970-2020 年）见证了 SCS 对总大气扰动的百分比贡献（13%）激增，并且最大贡献（20%）是最近十年（2010-2020）。在 1895 年、1967 年、1971 年、1972 年和 1999 年的飓风中，人类死亡人数超过 5000 人。SDMA（国家灾害管理局）的成立、有效的预报和疏散策略已成功降低死亡人数，但牲畜、生物多样性、生计和基础设施的损失仍然令人担忧。决策者应努力通过种植保护性红树林覆盖、教育和确保更好的生活条件以及为基础设施实施 4R（稳健性、冗余性、足智多谋和快速响应）弹性原则来提高风险社区的弹性。