ABSTRACT

This study aims to analyse the spatiotemporal trends and effect of economic development on road traffic fatalities (RTF) across 48 countries in Africa using annual data between 2007 and 2016. Data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, population density, road fatalities and registered vehicles were obtained from WHO and World Development Indicators. Spatial autocorrelation and clustering of mortality rates were analysed using spatial statistical techniques. Average mortality rate declined from 32.2 per 100,000 population in 2007 to 26.6 in 2016. There was wide spatial variation in mortality rates across countries. The year 2010 exhibited a statistically significant spatial dependence on mortality rates. Locally, hotspots of mortality rates were located in 10 countries in 2010 and in 2 countries in 2016. Significant ‘coldspots’ were exhibited in four countries during the study period. Mixed-effect negative binomial regression analysis results reveal significant negative relationship between GDP per capita and road fatalities for both highly developed and less developed countries. Furthermore, 1% increase in registered vehicles leads to a rise in RTF. The government needs to invest more funds in road infrastructure, safe public transport, enforcement of regulations and post-crash emergency care.

摘要

本研究旨在利用 2007 年至 2016 年间的年度数据，分析经济发展对非洲 48 个国家道路交通死亡人数 (RTF) 的时空趋势和影响。人均国内生产总值 (GDP)、人口密度、道路死亡人数和注册车辆来自世界卫生组织和世界发展指标。使用空间统计技术分析死亡率的空间自相关和聚类。平均死亡率从 2007 年的每 10 万人 32.2 人下降到 2016 年的 26.6 人。各国死亡率的空间差异很大。2010 年对死亡率的空间依赖性具有统计学意义。在当地，2010 年有 10 个国家和 2016 年有 2 个国家的死亡率热点。在研究期间，四个国家展示了重要的“冷点”。混合效应负二项式回归分析结果显示，无论是高度发达国家还是欠发达国家，人均 GDP 与道路死亡人数之间存在显着的负相关关系。此外，注册车辆增加 1% 会导致 RTF 增加。政府需要在道路基础设施、安全公共交通、法规执行和车祸后紧急护理方面投入更多资金。