Ukraine is existential to Russia, but peripheral to American interests. The “escalation dominance” advantage is with Moscow, and no amount of military aid or economic coercion, short of an actual war, will deter Moscow, given the asymmetry of interests and differing threat perceptions. American public opinion remains firmly opposed to risking a potential great power war. That said, a Ukraine—if it exists as a state after the war—at peace with its neighbours is in everyone’s interest, as is a decreased risk of a great power conflict. This policy brief identifies some confidence-building measures that might, in a similar situation in the future, result in a more realist grand bargain. A potential war might be a short punitive campaign by Russia, in which case the central thesis of this policy brief, a neutral zone in Ukraine, will remain intact. It might also be a war of occupation and conquest, in which case this paper might be considered a study in a counterfactual history of what could have been.

中文翻译：

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大交易的错失良机：北约与俄罗斯之间的安全架构

乌克兰对俄罗斯来说是生死攸关的，但对美国的利益来说却是次要的。“升级优势”的优势在于莫斯科，鉴于利益的不对称和对威胁的不同看法，任何军事援助或经济胁迫，除非是一场真正的战争，都无法阻止莫斯科。美国舆论仍然坚决反对冒潜在的大国战争的风险。也就是说，一个乌克兰——如果它在战后作为一个国家存在的话——与邻国和平相处符合每个人的利益，同时降低发生大国冲突的风险也是如此。本政策简报确定了一些建立信任的措施，这些措施在未来的类似情况下可能会导致更现实的大交易。一场潜在的战争可能是俄罗斯的一次短暂的惩罚性战役，在这种情况下，本政策简报的中心论点——乌克兰的中立区将保持不变。