This study examines trade union decline in light of concurrent changes in the demographic and sectoral composition of labor markets. Drawing on classical sociology and contemporary scholarship on work and employment, the author theorizes that the emergence of post-industrial work settings coupled with more socially diverse workforces make labor organizing more difficult than prior research recognizes. Operating through various mechanisms, these factors are thought to hinder the development of solidarity among workers and direct employment growth toward previously unorganized parts of the economy. Using panel data on 18 countries from 1960 to 2015, these ideas are tested with regression models that capture labor market changes indicative of post-industrial capitalism—measured by changes in deindustrialization, foreign-born population, and female share of employment. The results support the theoretical argument, with counterfactual estimates suggesting that labor market changes occurring between 1960 and 2015 reduced union density by 9 to 13 points for the whole sample.

本研究根据劳动力市场的人口和部门构成同时发生的变化，考察了工会的衰落。借鉴古典社会学和当代关于工作和就业的学术研究，作者推测，后工业工作环境的出现加上社会多元化的劳动力使得劳动力组织比先前研究认识到的更加困难。这些因素通过各种机制发挥作用，被认为会阻碍工人之间团结的发展，并将就业增长直接导向经济中以前无组织的部分。使用 1960 年至 2015 年 18 个国家的面板数据，这些想法通过回归模型进行测试，该模型捕捉劳动力市场的变化，这些变化表明后工业资本主义——通过去工业化、外国出生人口的变化、和女性就业份额。结果支持理论论点，反事实估计表明，1960 年至 2015 年期间发生的劳动力市场变化将整个样本的工会密度降低了 9 到 13 个百分点。