ABSTRACT

The Arctic sea ice is dramatically retreating in concentration, thickness, and duration. The larger and longer-lasting periods of open water will likely lead to increase trans-Arctic ship traffic, which then increases the risk of accidents and of pollutant spills. In this study, we focus on the potential oceanic circulation pathways of pollutants that may be spilt along with the Northwest Passage in the Canadian Arctic. We used a high-resolution numerical model and a Lagrangian particle tracking tool to simulate the advection of pollutants released in and within proximity to the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. We released 5000 virtual particles over 24 main release sites every 10 days during the operating season (June–October) for 12 years (2004–2015). For each simulation, we examined the circulation pathway and computed particles’ spreading area, distances travelled, subsurface spread, and the variability and uncertainty of their distribution during the two-year simulation duration. We analysed these factors with respect to the dominant oceanic circulation of where the particles were initially seeded and the role of atmospheric circulation and were able to identify three main circulation regimes and eight small-scale regimes. This study highlights the role of oceanic advection in the spreading of particles and determines that particles released in the eastern study area exhibited the largest spreading area as the majority propagated into the North Atlantic Ocean rapidly.

摘要

北极海冰的浓度、厚度和持续时间都在急剧消退。更大和更持久的开放水域时间可能会导致跨北极船舶交通增加，从而增加事故和污染物泄漏的风险。在这项研究中，我们关注可能与加拿大北极西北航道一起溢出的污染物的潜在海洋循环路径。我们使用高分辨率数值模型和拉格朗日粒子跟踪工具来模拟在加拿大北极群岛及其附近释放的污染物的平流。在 12 年（2004-2015 年）的运营季节（6 月至 10 月）期间，我们每 10 天在 24 个主要释放点释放 5000 个虚拟粒子。对于每个模拟，我们检查了循环路径并计算了粒子的扩散区域，在为期两年的模拟期间，行进距离、地下蔓延以及其分布的可变性和不确定性。我们分析了这些因素与粒子最初播种的主要海洋环流和大气环流的作用有关，并能够确定三个主要环流模式和八个小尺度模式。这项研究强调了海洋平流在粒子扩散中的作用，并确定东部研究区释放的粒子表现出最大的扩散区域，因为大多数粒子迅速传播到北大西洋。我们分析了这些因素与粒子最初播种的主要海洋环流和大气环流的作用有关，并能够确定三个主要环流模式和八个小尺度模式。这项研究强调了海洋平流在粒子扩散中的作用，并确定东部研究区释放的粒子表现出最大的扩散区域，因为大多数粒子迅速传播到北大西洋。我们分析了这些因素与粒子最初播种的主要海洋环流和大气环流的作用有关，并能够确定三个主要环流模式和八个小尺度模式。这项研究强调了海洋平流在粒子扩散中的作用，并确定东部研究区释放的粒子表现出最大的扩散区域，因为大多数粒子迅速传播到北大西洋。