ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the evolution of business cycles synchronization in Latin America since the 1990ʹs. To do so, a Vector Autoregressive model is fed, alternatively, with the countries’ Industrial Production Indexes and with these series filtered by the US financial conditions index, which is considered a common component affecting business cycles in the region. Additionally, a Markov switching model is estimated to identify regional recessions. Our findings indicate that business cycles connectedness rise significantly during regional recessions and that the common factor plays an important role. The evidence supports the usefulness of policy coordination among Latin American economies to cushion the spillover effects of exogenous shocks, and helps to identify subgroups of countries for which such coordination is recommendable.

摘要

本文研究了自 1990 年代以来拉丁美洲商业周期同步的演变。为了做到这一点，向量自回归模型被输入，或者，与国家的工业生产指数和这些序列通过美国金融状况指数过滤，这被认为是影响该地区商业周期的常见组成部分。此外，估计马尔可夫转换模型可以识别区域衰退。我们的研究结果表明，在区域衰退期间，商业周期的关联性显着提高，并且共同因素起着重要作用。证据支持拉丁美洲经济体之间的政策协调有助于缓冲外生冲击的溢出效应，并有助于确定可推荐此类协调的国家亚组。