ABSTRACT

Persistent increases in basic food prices have become a critical challenge in Ethiopia since 2006. This paper assesses whether the structure of the grain market has contributed to the price increases. Traders having market power could create commodity price stickiness, implying that what goes up does not come down, leading to price increases. The study examines price linkages between principal grain markets in Ethiopia, using monthly prices from the wheat, maize, and teff markets. The Engle-Granger cointegration test is used to check for cointegration, while the Threshold Autoregressive Model is employed to investigate potential asymmetric price transmission. The findings indicate that major grain markets in Ethiopia are well integrated. Moreover, the threshold cointegration model reveals that they are characterized by symmetric adjustment. Hence, I argue that there is insufficient evidence to support the claim that market structure contributes to the price increase in Ethiopian grain markets.

摘要

自 2006 年以来，基本食品价格持续上涨已成为埃塞俄比亚面临的一项重大挑战。本文评估了谷物市场结构是否对价格上涨做出了贡献。具有市场支配力的交易者可能会产生商品价格粘性，这意味着上涨的东西不会下跌，从而导致价格上涨。该研究使用小麦、玉米和苔麸市场的月度价格，研究了埃塞俄比亚主要谷物市场之间的价格联系。Engle-Granger 协整检验用于检查协整，而阈值自回归模型用于调查潜在的不对称价格传递。调查结果表明，埃塞俄比亚的主要谷物市场整合良好。此外，阈值协整模型表明它们具有对称调整的特征。因此，