Abstract Industry analysts have noted that the rise of e-commerce has increased the demand for last-mile delivery services, defined as the last-mile transportation of large, bulky items (e.g., furniture) that cannot be shipped by parcel carriers to consumers' locations. Although last-mile delivery has become crucial for retail logistics, no research has examined which carriers are more likely to diversify into last-mile delivery. As such decisions require large investments, motor carriers have an interest in understanding their peers' behaviors in this domain. Drawing on resource orchestration theory and Penrose's theory of firm growth, we devise middle-range theory that explains why carriers' provision of less-than-truckload (LTL) or expedite services will increase their likelihood of subsequently offering last-mile delivery services. Our theory further explains why these services will serve as substitutes such that the marginal effect of providing LTL services on subsequently offering last-mile delivery will be less when a carrier also offers expedite services, and vice versa. To test our theory, we assemble an archival panel dataset from Inbound Logistics, a premier industry publication, that summarizes carriers' various delivery services. Results from discrete time event history models corroborate our theorized predictions.

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汽车运输行业的最后一英里交付：使用离散时间事件历史分析的面板数据调查

摘要 行业分析师指出，电子商务的兴起增加了对最后一英里交付服务的需求，该服务定义为无法通过包裹承运人运送给消费者的大型、笨重物品（例如家具）的最后一英里运输。地点。尽管最后一英里交付对零售物流至关重要，但没有研究调查哪些运营商更有可能实现最后一英里交付。由于此类决策需要大量投资，因此汽车运营商有兴趣了解同行在该领域的行为。借鉴资源编排理论和彭罗斯的企业成长理论，我们设计了解释为什么运营商 提供零担 (LTL) 或加急服务将增加他们随后提供最后一英里交付服务的可能性。我们的理论进一步解释了为什么这些服务将作为替代品，这样当承运人也提供加急服务时，提供零担服务对随后提供最后一英里交付的边际效应会更小，反之亦然。为了检验我们的理论，我们从首屈一指的行业出版物 Inbound Logistics 收集了一个档案面板数据集，该数据集总结了承运人的各种交付服务。离散时间事件历史模型的结果证实了我们的理论预测。我们的理论进一步解释了为什么这些服务将作为替代品，这样当承运人也提供加急服务时，提供零担服务对随后提供最后一英里交付的边际效应会更小，反之亦然。为了检验我们的理论，我们从首屈一指的行业出版物 Inbound Logistics 收集了一个档案面板数据集，该数据集总结了承运人的各种交付服务。离散时间事件历史模型的结果证实了我们的理论预测。我们的理论进一步解释了为什么这些服务将作为替代品，这样当承运人也提供加急服务时，提供零担服务对随后提供最后一英里交付的边际效应会更小，反之亦然。为了检验我们的理论，我们从首屈一指的行业出版物 Inbound Logistics 收集了一个档案面板数据集，该数据集总结了承运人的各种交付服务。离散时间事件历史模型的结果证实了我们的理论预测。