Background: South Africa has not fully recovered from the 2008 global recession. The World Bank has predicted that South Africa will be one of the worst performers in sub-Saharan Africa in 2020 with tepid growth of 1.3% which is far below the National Development Plan targets growth of 5.4% required a year to reduce unemployment, create decent jobs and generate enough revenue for social development. Aim: We aim to examine whether changes in the components of final demand (changes in government spending, household consumption expenditure, exports, investment spending) have a considerable effect on the sector's gross value added, job creation and tax revenue generation and whether there were changes in the exogenous final demand in die post-recession period. Setting: We focus on building supply and use tables based on 62 different sectors of the South African economy. Methods: An economy-wide Leontief multiplier-based model calibrated on a supply and use framework and a micro-simulation model is used to assess post-recession trends in macroeconomic, labour and fiscal multipliers for South Africa. Results: The simulations show that during the post-recession era, the effect of exogenous shock in the economy, like an increase in investment spending, although positive, yields a smaller return in terms of tax revenue, job creation and economic growth. At sector level, the results show that the inter-industry links and industry-consumer links have therefore weakened. Conclusion: Our findings imply that the persisting low growth trajectory associated with weaker inter-industry linkages could be exacerbated, while the fiscal austerity measures associated with weaker forward and backword tax linkages could be prolonged. We recommend government should follow a priorities-based spending policy that yields optimal socioeconomic returns.

中文翻译：

---

基于 Leontief 的南非经济动态供应和使用表的微观模拟

背景：南非尚未从 2008 年的全球经济衰退中完全恢复。世界银行预测，南非将成为 2020 年撒哈拉以南非洲地区表现最差的国家之一，增长率为 1.3%，远低于国家发展计划为减少失业、创造体面劳动所需的每年 5.4% 的增长目标。并为社会发展创造足够的收入。目标：我们旨在研究最终需求组成部分的变化（政府支出、家庭消费支出、出口、投资支出的变化）是否对该行业的总增加值、创造就业机会和税收产生有相当大的影响，以及是否存在后衰退时期外生最终需求的变化。环境：我们专注于根据南非经济的 62 个不同部门建立供应和使用表。方法：在供应和使用框架上校准的基于经济范围的 Leontief 乘数模型和微观模拟模型用于评估南非宏观经济、劳动力和财政乘数的衰退后趋势。结果：模拟表明，在后衰退时代，外生冲击对经济的影响，如投资支出的增加，虽然是积极的，但在税收、创造就业和经济增长方面产生的回报较小。在行业层面，结果表明，行业间的联系和行业与消费者的联系因此减弱。结论：我们的研究结果表明，与行业间联系较弱相关的持续低增长轨迹可能会加剧，而与较弱的前后税收联系相关的财政紧缩措施可能会延长。我们建议政府应遵循基于优先事项的支出政策，以产生最佳的社会经济回报。