Myanmar has suffered the world’s longest civil war, with continuous combat since shortly before the country’s independence from the UK in 1948. A new National Ceasefire Agreement has raised hopes that peace may finally be in sight. However, optimism should be tempered by a recognition the peace process has not built much trust, reduced the number of non-state armed groups in the country, their total size, or significantly improved their human rights behavior. This is demonstrated through an analysis of original data on the major non-state armed groups active in Myanmar between 1985 and 2017. Peace will require hard political work leading to disarmament, restraining the military, and reassuring the country’s ethnic minority groups that their rights and interests will be respected even without the threat of insurgent violence.

中文翻译：

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缅甸的非国家武装团体与和平前景？

缅甸经历了世界上持续时间最长的内战，自 1948 年该国从英国独立前不久，持续不断的战斗。新的国家停火协议带来了和平可能终于到来的希望。然而，乐观情绪应该通过承认和平进程没有建立太多信任、减少该国非国家武装团体的数量、其总规模或显着改善其人权行为来缓和。对 1985 年至 2017 年间活跃在缅甸的主要非国家武装团体的原始数据的分析证明了这一点。和平需要艰苦的政治工作，导致解除武装、限制军队，并向该国的少数民族群体保证他们的权利和即使没有叛乱暴力的威胁，利益也将得到尊重。