This paper provides empirical evidence on the reorganization of GVCs in East Asia, highlighting that structural trends explain a decrease in the fragmentation of production after 2011 but that it is not the result of rising trade costs along the value chain Using harmonized inter-country input-output tables, the paper first analyzes the global import intensity of production to document changes in the structure of GVCs It then calculates theory-consistent bilateral trade costs for intermediate and final products using an approach derived from the gravity literature and introduces a new index of cumulative trade costs along the value chain These data are used to discuss whether the decrease in global imports is the consequence of shifts in demand, efficiency-enhancing strategies of firms or rising trade costs Between 2011 and 2016, cumulative trade costs have decreased in East Asian GVCs However, as COVID-19 is likely to intensify trade and investment uncertainties, trade costs could increase in the future Policies aimed at reducing uncertainties and preserving the gains from trade and investment liberalization will be key in this new environment

中文翻译：

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COVID-19前后东亚全球价值链的重组

本文提供了东亚全球价值链重组的经验证据，强调结构趋势解释了 2011 年之后生产分散化程度的下降，但这并不是价值链上贸易成本上升的结果。输出表中，本文首先分析了全球生产的进口强度，以记录全球价值链结构的变化。然后使用从重力文献中得出的方法计算与理论一致的中间产品和最终产品的双边贸易成本，并引入了一个新的累积指数价值链上的贸易成本 这些数据用于讨论 2011 年至 2016 年间全球进口下降是否是需求变化、企业提高效率的战略或贸易成本上升的结果，东亚全球价值链的累计贸易成本已经下降 然而，由于 COVID-19 可能会加剧贸易和投资的不确定性，未来贸易成本可能会增加 旨在减少不确定性并保持贸易和投资自由化收益的政策将是关键新的环境