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Financing COVID-19 Deficits in Fiscally Dominant Economies: Is The Monetarist Arithmetic Unpleasant?
East Asian Economic Review Pub Date : 2020-12-31 , DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2020.24.4.386
Martín Uribe

The coronavirus pandemic of 2019-20 confronted fiscally dominant regimes around the world with the question of whether the large deficits caused by the health crisis should be monetized or financed by issuing debt The unpleasant monetarist arithmetic of Sargent and Wallace (1981) states that in a fiscally dominant regime tighter money now can cause higher inflation in the future In spite of the qualifier 'unpleasant,' this result is positive in nature, and, therefore, void of normative content I analyze conditions under which it is optimal in a welfare sense for the central bank to delay inflation by issuing debt to finance part of the fiscal deficit The analysis is conducted in the context of a model in which the aforementioned monetarist arithmetic holds, in the sense that if the government finds it optimal to delay inflation, it does so knowing that it would result in higher inflation in the future The central result of the paper is that delaying inflation is optimal when the fiscal deficit is expected to decline over time [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of East Asian Economic Review (EAER) is the property of Korea Institute for International Economic Policy and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use This abstract may be abridged No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract (Copyright applies to all Abstracts )

中文翻译:

在财政占主导地位的经济体中为 COVID-19 赤字融资:货币主义算术是否令人不快?

2019-20 年的冠状病毒大流行使世界各地的财政占主导地位的政权面临这样一个问题:健康危机造成的巨额赤字是否应该通过发行债务货币化或融资。萨金特和华莱士(1981 年)令人不快的货币主义算术表明,在财政占主导地位的政权现在收紧货币会导致未来更高的通货膨胀尽管有“不愉快”这个限定词,但这个结果本质上是积极的,因此,在没有规范内容的情况下,我分析了在哪些条件下它在福利意义上是最优的中央银行通过发行债务来为部分财政赤字融资来延缓通货膨胀该分析是在上述货币主义算术成立的模型的背景下进行的,从某种意义上说,如果政府发现延缓通货膨胀的最佳方法,它这样做是知道这将导致未来更高的通货膨胀 本文的核心结果是,当预计财政赤字会随着时间的推移而下降时,延迟通货膨胀是最佳选择 [摘要来自作者] 东亚经济评论 (EAER) 版权所有是韩国国际经济政策研究所的财产,未经版权所有者明确书面许可,不得将其内容复制或通过电子邮件发送到多个站点或发布到列表服务器。但是,用户可以打印、下载或通过电子邮件发送文章供个人使用此摘要可能会被删节 不保证副本的准确性 用户应参考材料的原始出版版本以获得完整的摘要(版权适用于所有摘要)或电子邮件文章供个人使用 本摘要可能会被删节 不保证副本的准确性 用户应参考材料的原始出版版本以获取完整摘要(版权适用于所有摘要)
更新日期:2020-12-31
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