This paper investigates the effects of the Brexit announcement on the British economy. For this, we use a counterfactual analysis methodology, predicting a set of macroeconomic variables of the British economy in a scenario where the Brexit announcement did not happen and measuring what drifted away from its effective value. To forecast the variables we use the ARIMA method. Our conclusions are that if Brexit had not been announced: i) the exchange rate of the Pound Sterling against the US Dollar would not have had such a sharp depreciation trend; ii) real wage growth would not have been as high after the referendum; iii) the growth rate of the consumer price index would not have had such a strong growth trend and iv) the Gross Domestic Product would have grown at a higher pace and after three years of Brexit announcement it would have been 3% higher.

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英国脱欧：宏观经济对英国经济影响的探索性分析

本文调查了英国退欧公告对英国经济的影响。为此，我们使用反事实分析方法，在英国退欧公告未发生的情况下预测英国经济的一组宏观经济变量，并衡量偏离其有效价值的因素。为了预测变量，我们使用 ARIMA 方法。我们的结论是，如果没有宣布英国脱欧：i) 英镑兑美元的汇率不会出现如此急剧的贬值趋势；ii) 公投后实际工资增长不会那么高；