Fifty years ago, in 1967, I completed my PhD dissertation, which involved the first multivariate model for predicting the financial health of US manufacturing firms and whether or not they were likely to file for bankruptcy. That work was followed shortly afterward (in 1968) by the publication of the model’s specifications. Despite its “old age”, the Altman Z-score is still the standard against which most other bankruptcy or default prediction models are measured and is clearly the most used by financial market practitioners and academic scholars for a variety of purposes. The objective of this paper is to reflect upon the evolution of the Altman family of bankruptcy prediction models, as well as their extensions and multiple applications in financial markets and managerial decision making.

中文翻译：

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信用风险模型、Altman Z-score 系列模型及其在金融市场和管理策略中的应用的五十年回顾

五十年前，即 1967 年，我完成了我的博士论文，其中涉及第一个预测美国制造公司财务状况以及它们是否可能申请破产的多元模型。不久之后（1968 年）发布了该模型的规格。尽管奥特曼 Z 分数“年代久远”，但它仍然是衡量大多数其他破产或违约预测模型的标准，并且显然是金融市场从业者和学术学者出于各种目的最常使用的标准。本文的目的是反思 Altman 系列破产预测模型的演变，以及它们在金融市场和管理决策中的扩展和多种应用。