The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of the default of some personal credit modality in the future default of the other modalities. Using Brazilian microdata, we run a logistic regression to estimate the probability of default in a given credit modality, including among the explanatory variables the personal overdue exposure in the other credit modalities. Our results show that such effect is positive and significant, although quantitatively heterogeneous. We also discuss the rationale behind these results. Specifically, it was found that financing credit modalities (vehicle and real estate financing) contaminate more the other credit modalities, as their default may bring to the debtor the loss of the financed good. Moreover, riskier loan categories (overdraft, non-payroll-deducted personal credit and credit card) are more contaminated by the default of other modalities, what is explained by the fact that defaulted individuals have a limited access to less risky credit modalities.

中文翻译：

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信贷模式之间的违约蔓延：来自巴西数据的证据

本文的目的是评估某些个人信用模式的违约对其他模式未来违约的影响。使用巴西微观数据，我们运行逻辑回归来估计给定信贷模式中的违约概率，包括在解释变量中的其他信贷模式中的个人逾期风险敞口。我们的结果表明，这种影响是积极的和显着的，尽管数量上是异质的。我们还讨论了这些结果背后的基本原理。具体而言，发现融资信贷方式（车辆和房地产融资）更多地污染了其他信贷方式，因为它们的违约可能会给债务人带来融资商品的损失。此外，风险较高的贷款类别（透支、