PurposeThis paper aims to examine the interrelationships between subnational conflicts in Myanmar and other variables of interests from the following four major domains: economic, human security and vulnerability of people, aggressiveness or militancy of the armed forces and global and regional climates.Design/methodology/approachAutoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach has been applied on annual data from 1960-2017, to deal with the problems of autocorrelation and non-stationarity of key variables.FindingsFirst, an increase in crop yield, cereal productivity, food productivity and per capita availability of arable land unequivocally and significantly lower the severity of conflict in Myanmar in the long run. Second, the authors uncover strong evidence that the intensity of conflicts bears a positive relationship with the vulnerability of the people of Myanmar. Third, the authors detect that both regional and global climate variables have limited and rather inconsistent impacts on subnational conflicts in Myanmar. Finally, the authors find that the aggressiveness (militancy index) of the armed forces has significant impacts upon subnational conflicts and economic variables of Myanmar in the long run.Originality/valueThis paper is completely data-driven and explains the long-term dynamics of the intensity of the civil war in Myanmar. ARDL bounds testing approach has been used to examine the interrelationships between subnational conflicts in Myanmar and other variables of interests. It is a novel approach, which overcomes the problems of autocorrelation and nonstationarity and offers reliable results.

中文翻译：

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了解缅甸的地方冲突

目的本文旨在从以下四个主要领域研究缅甸地方冲突与其他利益变量之间的相互关系：经济、人类安全和人民的脆弱性、武装部队的侵略性或好战性以及全球和区域气候。设计/方法/方法自回归分布滞后 (ARDL) 边界检验方法已应用于 1960-2017 年的年度数据，以处理关键变量的自相关和非平稳性问题。从长远来看，人均可耕地面积明确且显着降低了缅甸冲突的严重程度。第二，作者发现了强有力的证据，表明冲突的激烈程度与缅甸人民的脆弱性呈正相关。第三，作者发现区域和全球气候变量对缅甸地方冲突的影响有限且相当不一致。最后，作者发现，从长远来看，武装部队的侵略性（好战指数）对缅甸的地方冲突和经济变量具有显着影响。原创性/价值本文完全是数据驱动的，并解释了缅甸内战的激烈程度。ARDL 边界测试方法已被用于检查缅甸地方冲突与其他利益变量之间的相互关系。这是一种新颖的方法，