This paper elucidates the causal effect of lockdowns on social distancing behaviour in Turkey by adopting an augmented synthetic control and a factor-augmented model approach for imputing counterfactuals. By constructing a synthetic control group that reproduces pre-lockdown trajectory of mobility of the treated provinces and that accommodates staggered adoption, the difference between the counterfactual and actual mobility of treated provinces is assessed in the post-lockdown period. The analysis shows that in the short-run following the onset of lockdowns, outdoor mobility would have been about 17 to 53 percentage points higher on average in the absence of lockdowns, depending on social distancing measure. On the other hand, residential mobility would have been about 12 percentage points lower in the absence of lockdowns. The findings are corroborated using interactive fixed-effects and matrix completion counterfactuals that accommodate staggered adoption and treatment reversals.

中文翻译：

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Covid-19 封锁对土耳其社会隔离的影响

本文通过采用增强合成控制和因子增强模型方法来估算反事实，阐明了封锁对土耳其社会疏远行为的因果影响。通过构建一个合成控制组，该控制组再现了封锁前省份的流动轨迹并适应了交错采用，评估了封锁后省份的反事实流动与实际流动之间的差异。分析表明，在封锁开始后的短期内，在没有封锁的情况下，户外流动性平均会高出约 17 至 53 个百分点，具体取决于社会距离措施。另一方面，在没有封锁的情况下，住宅流动性会降低约 12 个百分点。