Economic stress indices are beginning to be developed as gauges of business cycle conditions for regional economies. Although the popularity of these metrics is increasing, there have been only a small number of studies that analyze the effectiveness of these tools for monitoring regional economic developments. This effort employs data for one such index that is maintained by the University of Texas at El Paso Border Region Modeling Project. The sample period covers December 2002 through March 2019. Specific components of the index include inflation, unemployment, and housing prices. Estimation results indicate that the effects of any changes in economic stress levels may take approximately 16 months to be fully experienced within the El Paso retail sector. Simulation results indicate that a one-time, 1-point increase in economic stress leads to a $2.987 million decrease in monthly retail sales.

经济压力指数已开始开发，作为区域经济体商业周期状况的衡量标准。尽管这些指标越来越受欢迎，但只有少数研究分析了这些工具在监测区域经济发展方面的有效性。这项工作使用了由德克萨斯大学埃尔帕索边境地区建模项目维护的此类索引的数据。样本期涵盖 2002 年 12 月至 2019 年 3 月。该指数的具体组成部分包括通货膨胀、失业率和房价。估计结果表明，经济压力水平的任何变化的影响可能需要大约 16 个月才能在埃尔帕索零售业中完全体现出来。仿真结果表明，一次性，