This paper globally analyzes the bivariate relation between large current account imbalances and the real exchange rate over different degrees of nominal exchange rate variability. Employing both linear and nonlinear panel estimation procedures, we typically find an inverse long-run link between large imbalances and the real exchange rate at lower nominal exchange rate rigidity levels. This is in contrast to the often non-existent or positive comovement that materializes under lower nominal exchange rate variation. Our results thus suggest that greater nominal exchange rate adjustment can induce a stabilizing “current account”-“real exchange rate” relation. Meanwhile, current account adjustment speeds up with more flexible nominal exchange rates. Along the cross-section, the most salient findings are i) the striking positive relation between current account persistence and real exchange rate persistence based on country-specific estimates and ii) the inverse correlation between persistence in either the current account or real exchange rate and nominal exchange rate volatility.

本文在全球范围内分析了在不同程度的名义汇率波动下，巨大的经常账户失衡与实际汇率之间的双变量关系。采用线性和非线性面板估计程序，我们通常会发现在名义汇率刚性水平较低时，大失衡与实际汇率之间存在反向长期联系。这与在较低名义汇率变化下实现的通常不存在或积极的联动形成对比。因此，我们的结果表明，更大的名义汇率调整可以导致稳定的“经常账户”-“实际汇率”关系。同时，经常账户调整加快，名义汇率更加灵活。沿着横截面，