Changes in agricultural systems are a multi-causal process involving climate change, globalization and technological change. These complex interactions regulate the landscape transformation process by imposing landuseandcover change (LUCC)dynamics. Inorder tobetterunderstandand forecast theLUCCprocess we developed a spatially explicit agent-based model in the form of a Cellular Automata: the AgroDEVS model. The model was designed to project viable LUCC dynamics along with their associated economic and environmental changes. AgroDEVS is structured with behavioral rules and functions representing a) crop yields, b) weather conditions, c) economic profits, d) farmer preferences, e) adoption of technology levels and f) natural resource consumption based on embodied energy accounting. Using data from a typical location of the Pampa region (Argentina) for the period 1988-2015, simulation exercises showed that economic goals were achieved, on average, each 6 out of 10 years, but environmental thresholds were only achieved in 1.9 out of 10 years. In a set of 50-years simulations, LUCC patterns converge quickly towards the most profitable crop sequences, with no noticeable trade-o between economic and environmental conditions.

中文翻译：

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潘帕斯草原农民决策和种植系统绩效的综合生态社会模拟模型（阿根廷）

农业系统的变化是一个多因过程，涉及气候变化、全球化和技术变革。这些复杂的相互作用通过强加土地利用和覆盖变化 (LUCC) 动态来调节景观转变过程。为了更好地理解和预测 LUCC 过程，我们以元胞自动机的形式开发了一个基于空间显式代理的模型：AgroDEVS 模型。该模型旨在预测可行的 LUCC 动态及其相关的经济和环境变化。AgroDEVS 的结构具有行为规则和功能，代表 a) 作物产量，b) 天气条件，c) 经济利润，d) 农民偏好，e) 采用技术水平和 f) 基于具体能源核算的自然资源消耗。使用 1988 年至 2015 年期间潘帕地区（阿根廷）典型位置的数据，模拟练习表明，平均每 10 年有 6 年实现经济目标，但仅在 10 年中有 1.9 年实现了环境阈值年。在一组 50 年的模拟中，LUCC 模式迅速收敛到最有利可图的作物序列，经济和环境条件之间没有明显的权衡。