Societies tend to partition into factions based on shared beliefs, leading to sectarian conflict in society. This paper investigatesmistrust as a cause for this partitioningby extending an establishedopiniondynamics model with Bayesian updating that specifies mistrust as the underlying mechanism for disagreement and, ultimately, polarisation. We demonstrate that mistrust is at the foundation of polarisation. Detailed analysis and the results of rigorous simulation studies provide new insight into the potential role ofmistrust in polarisation. We show that consensus results whenmistrust levels are low, but introducing extreme agentsmakes consensus significantly harder to reach and highly fragmented and dispersed. These results also suggest amethod to verify the model using real-world experimental or observational data empirically.

中文翻译：

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不信任在意见采纳建模中的作用

社会倾向于根据共同的信仰分裂成派别，导致社会中的宗派冲突。本文通过使用贝叶斯更新扩展已建立的意见动力学模型来研究不信任作为这种划分的原因，该模型将不信任指定为分歧并最终导致两极分化的潜在机制。我们证明不信任是两极分化的基础。详细的分析和严格的模拟研究结果为不信任在极化中的潜在作用提供了新的见解。我们表明，当不信任水平较低时，共识会产生，但引入极端代理会使共识显着难以达成，并且高度分散和分散。这些结果还提出了一种使用现实世界的实验或观察数据凭经验验证模型的方法。