Abstract: Rapid international migration of significant populations generates profound implications for countries in West Asia, Europe, and other regions. The motivation of this work is to develop an agent-based model (ABM) to capture the existence of suchmigrant and refugee flows, and to explore the e ects of these flows on urban dynamics. Advances in agent-basedmodelling have led to theoretically-grounded spatial agent models of urban dynamics, capturing the dynamics of population, property prices, and regeneration. In this article we leverage such an extant agent-basedmodel founded on the rent-gap theory, as a lens to study the e ect of sizeable refugee migration upon a capital city in West Asia. In order to calibrate and validate the simulation model we construct indices for housing prices and other factors. Results from the model, implemented in NetLogo, show the impact of migration shock on the housing market, and identify the relative e icacy of housing intervention policies. Our work progresses towards a tool for policy makers asking what-if questions about the urban environment in the context of migration.

中文翻译：

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基于代理的西亚城市动态模拟：难民的影响

摘要：大量人口的快速国际迁移对西亚、欧洲和其他地区的国家产生了深远的影响。这项工作的动机是开发一个基于代理的模型（ABM）来捕捉这种移民和难民流动的存在，并探索这些流动对城市动态的影响。基于代理的建模的进步导致了基于理论的城市动态空间代理模型，捕捉了人口、房地产价格和再生的动态。在本文中，我们利用这种基于租金差距理论的现存代理模型，作为研究大规模难民迁移对西亚首都城市的影响的镜头。为了校准和验证模拟模型，我们构建了房价和其他因素的指数。模型的结果，在 NetLogo 中实施，显示移民冲击对住房市场的影响，并确定住房干预政策的相对有效性。我们的工作朝着为政策制定者提供一种工具而取得进展，该工具可以在移民背景下询问有关城市环境的假设问题。