This paper presents JuSt-Social, an agent-based model of the COVID-19 epidemic with a range of potential social policy interventions It was developed to support local authorities in North East England who are making decisions in a fast moving crisis with limited access to data The proximate purpose of JuSt-Social is description, as the model represents knowledge about both COVID-19 transmission and intervention effects Its ultimate purpose is to generate stories that respond to the questions and concerns of local planners and policy makers and are justified by the quality of the representation These justified stories organise the knowledge in way that is accessible, timely and useful at the local level, assisting the decision makers to better understand both their current situation and the plausible outcomes of policy alternatives JuSt-Social and the concept of justified stories apply to the modelling of infectious disease in general and, even more broadly, modelling in public health, particularly for policy interventions in complex systems © 2021, University of Surrey All rights reserved

中文翻译：

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用于本地 COVID-19 规划的基于代理的建模的合理故事

本文介绍了 JuSt-Social，这是一种基于代理的 COVID-19 流行病模型，具有一系列潜在的社会政策干预措施。它的开发是为了支持英格兰东北部的地方当局，他们在快速发展的危机中做出决策，但获取途径有限数据 JuSt-Social 的主要目的是描述，因为该模型代表了有关 COVID-19 传播和干预效果的知识。其最终目的是生成能够回应当地规划者和政策制定者的问题和担忧的故事，并由代表性的质量 这些合理的故事以在地方一级可访问、及时和有用的方式组织知识，协助决策者更好地了解他们当前的情况和政策选择的合理结果 JuSt-Social 和合理故事的概念适用于一般传染病建模，甚至更广泛地适用于公共卫生建模，特别是政策复杂系统的干预 © 2021, University of Surrey 版权所有