Risk assessments are designed to measure cumulative risk and promotive factors for delinquency and recidivism, and are used by criminal and juvenile justice systems to inform sanctions and interventions. Yet, these risk assessments tend to focus on individual risk and o en fail to capture each individual’s environmental risk. This paper presents an agent-based model (ABM) which explores the interaction of individual and environmental risk on the youth. The ABM is based on an interactional theory of delinquency and moves beyondmore traditional statistical approaches used to study delinquency that tend to rely on point-in-timemeasures, and to focus on exploring the dynamics and processes that evolve from interactions between agents (i.e., youths) and their environments. Our ABM simulates a youth’s day, where they spend time in schools, their neighborhoods, and families. The youth has proclivities for engaging in prosocial or antisocial behaviors, and their environments have likelihoods of presenting prosocial or antisocial opportunities. Results from systematically adjusting family, school, and neighborhood risk and promotive levels suggest that environmental risk and promotive factors play a role in shaping youth outcomes. As such themodel shows promise for increasing our understanding of delinquency.

中文翻译：

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青年及其人为的社会环境风险和促进分数（Ya-TASERPS）：基于代理的犯罪互动理论模型

风险评估旨在衡量犯罪和累犯的累积风险和促进因素，并被刑事和少年司法系统用于为制裁和干预措施提供信息。然而，这些风险评估往往侧重于个人风险，往往未能捕捉到每个人的环境风险。本文提出了一种基于代理的模型（ABM），该模型探讨了个人和环境风险对青少年的相互作用。ABM 基于犯罪的交互理论，超越了用于研究犯罪的更传统的统计方法，这些统计方法往往依赖于时间点测量，并专注于探索从代理人（即青少年）之间的互动演变而来的动态和过程) 及其环境。我们的 ABM 模拟了青少年的一天，他们在学校度过的时光，他们的社区和家庭。青少年有参与亲社会或反社会行为的倾向，他们的环境可能会提供亲社会或反社会机会。系统调整家庭、学校和邻里风险和促进水平的结果表明，环境风险和促进因素在塑造青年成果方面发挥着作用。因此，该模型有望增加我们对犯罪的理解。