AbstractThe relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the transatlantic slave trade (TAST) is examined using the Slave Voyages dataset and several reconstructed ENSO indices. The ENSO indices are used as a proxy for West African rainfall and temperature. In the Sahel, the El Niño (warm) phase of ENSO is associated with less rainfall and warmer temperatures, whereas the La Niña (cold) phase of ENSO is associated with more rainfall and cooler temperatures. The association between ENSO and the TAST is weak but statistically significant at a 2-yr lag. In this case, El Niño (drier and warmer) years are associated with a decrease in the export of enslaved Africans. The response of the TAST to El Niño is explained in terms of the societal response to agricultural stresses brought on by less rainfall and warmer temperatures. ENSO-induced changes to the TAST are briefly discussed in light of climate-induced movements of peoples in centuries past and the drought-induced movement of peoples in the Middle East today.Significance StatementThe transatlantic slave trade was driven by economic and political forces, subject to the vagaries of the weather; it spanned two hemispheres and four continents and lasted more than 400 years. In this study we show that El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and its proxy association with West African rainfall and temperature, are significantly associated with the number of enslaved Africans that were transported from West Africa to the Americas. Lessons learned from the effects of weather and climate on the transatlantic slave trade reverberate today: extreme weather and climate change will continue to catalyze and amplify human conflict and migrations.

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厄尔尼诺现象——南方涛动和跨大西洋奴隶贸易

摘要厄尔尼诺-南方涛动 (ENSO) 与跨大西洋奴隶贸易 (TAST) 之间的关系通过奴隶航行数据集和几个重建的 ENSO 指数进行了研究。ENSO 指数被用作西非降雨和温度的代表。在萨赫勒地区，ENSO 的厄尔尼诺（暖）阶段与降雨量减少和温度升高有关，而 ENSO 的拉尼娜（冷）阶段与降雨量增加和温度降低有关。ENSO 与 TAST 之间的关联较弱，但在 2 年滞后时具有统计学意义。在这种情况下，厄尔尼诺（更干燥和更温暖）年份与被奴役非洲人的出口减少有关。TAST 对厄尔尼诺现象的反应可以用社会对降雨减少和气温升高带来的农业压力的反应来解释。ENSO 引起的 TAST 变化简要讨论了几个世纪以来气候引起的人口流动和今天中东地区干旱引起的人口流动。重要声明跨大西洋奴隶贸易是由经济和政治力量推动的，主题变幻莫测的天气；它跨越了两个半球和四大洲，持续了400多年。在这项研究中，我们表明厄尔尼诺 - 南方涛动及其与西非降雨和温度的代理关联与从西非运往美洲的被奴役非洲人的数量显着相关。从天气和气候对跨大西洋奴隶贸易的影响中吸取的教训在今天引起了反响：