We present a historical analysis of transportation and urban development in São Paulo (Brazil), attempting to discern Granger causal effects using historical land-use and transportation data from 1881 to 2013. Our results align with the hypothesis commonly stated in the literature about the relevance of road transportation in São Paulo’s peripheral urban expansion during the twentieth century. We find, however, more complex relationships, and changes in them, over time. Over the entire 130 years, we find that urban expansion and road development pushed and pulled each other, in a somewhat “orderly” way. On the other hand, while roads are not linked to densification, we find that mass transit infrastructure did lead to building densification. Distinguishing among distinct periods adds further insights. Examining São Paulo’s “streetcar era” we find joint development of streetcar lines and urban expansion – evidence of joint development consistent with “streetcar suburbs.” Streetcars also led to building densification during this early period. In subsequent decades, up until the mid-1970s, mass transit investments are virtually non-existent and road transportation essentially chases urban expansion, not vice versa. Finally, the last four decades reveal a return to “orderly” patterns of road expansion and urbanization but no evidence of mass transit infrastructure’s effects on urbanization or densification. The analysis illustrates how transportation investment choices have important consequences for urban growth, exerting long-lasting influences on its urban form.

中文翻译：

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追逐停不下来的城市：探索圣保罗历史上的交通与城市协同发展

我们对圣保罗（巴西）的交通和城市发展进行了历史分析，试图利用 1881 年至 2013 年的历史土地利用和交通数据来辨别格兰杰因果效应。我们的结果与文献中关于相关性的普遍假设一致20 世纪圣保罗周边城市扩张的道路交通状况。然而，随着时间的推移，我们发现更复杂的关系及其变化。130年来，我们发现城市扩张和道路发展相互推拉，有点“有序”。另一方面，虽然道路与致密化无关，但我们发现公共交通基础设施确实导致了建筑致密化。区分不同的时期增加了进一步的洞察力。审视圣保罗的“有轨电车时代”，我们发现有轨电车线路和城市扩张的联合开发——与“有轨电车郊区”一致的联合开发证据。在此早期，有轨电车也导致了建筑物的致密化。在随后的几十年中，直到 1970 年代中期，公共交通投资几乎不存在，道路交通基本上是在追逐城市扩张，反之亦然。最后，过去 40 年揭示了道路扩张和城市化的“有序”模式回归，但没有证据表明公共交通基础设施对城市化或密集化产生影响。该分析说明交通投资选择如何对城市增长产生重要影响，对其城市形态产生长期影响。