This study estimates the effect of an increase in Japan’s value-added tax (VAT) rate on the timing of household expenditures and consumption, which do not necessarily coincide. The empirical analysis finds that spending on a wide range of durables and storables surged in the months prior to the tax rate increase, fell sharply upon implementation, but returned to their previous long-run levels within a few months. Nonstorable, nondurable expenditures increased slightly in the month prior to the tax rate increase but were otherwise unresponsive. A dynamic structural model of household consumption reveals that the observed spending responses were driven by stockpiling behavior, the insensitivity of durable and nondurable consumption to the tax rate increase, and strong complementarities between durables and nondurables. By mapping durable and storable expenditures into consumption, the model allows for a considerably more precise estimate of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution in consumption than the standard method, which focuses on nondurable spending only. The results, external validity checks, and marginal excess burden calculation suggest that anticipated changes in VAT rates have a large, though highly transitory, impact on household spending that generates miniscule efficiency costs.

中文翻译：

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消费对增值税税率上调的反应

本研究估计了日本增值税（VAT）税率提高对家庭支出和消费时间的影响，这不一定一致。实证分析发现，各种耐用品和可储存品的支出在税率上调前几个月激增，在实施后急剧下降，但在几个月内恢复到之前的长期水平。在税率上调前一个月，不可储存、非持久性支出略有增加，但其他方面反应迟钝。家庭消费的动态结构模型表明，观察到的支出反应是由囤积行为、耐用品和非耐用品消费对税率增加的不敏感以及耐用品和非耐用品之间的强互补性驱动的。通过将持久性和可存储性支出映射到消费中，该模型可以比仅关注非持久性支出的标准方法更精确地估计消费中的跨期替代弹性。结果、外部有效性检查和边际超额负担计算表明，增值税税率的预期变化对家庭支出产生巨大但短暂的影响，从而产生微乎其微的效率成本。