Abstract

How is the evolving COVID crisis affecting workers’ employment outcomes? Using the ERF COVID-19 MENA Monitors for Egypt and Jordan (July ‘20–September ‘21), we estimate probabilistic models of workers’ employment statuses and of their job loss. We confirm that the stringency of COVID regimes affects negatively employment and labor participation, particularly among youths, even if they were not disadvantaged before. Workers’ preexisting status affects their outcome amid COVID, implying strong state dependence of employment. Those laid off amid COVID are predominantly those without formal employment before the pandemic. During the easing of COVID regimes between the fall of 2020 and mid-2021, men’s employment prospects gradually improved, but women experienced a stagnation by being largely excluded from work opportunities irrespective of COVID developments. Youths of both genders are affected more adversely than non-youths during the pandemic, face higher risks of getting laid off, and lower prospects of becoming employed—supporting the ‘last in’ hypothesis.

摘要

不断演变的 COVID 危机如何影响工人的就业成果？使用埃及和约旦的 ERF COVID-19 MENA 监测器（2020 年 7 月至 21 年 9 月），我们估计了工人就业状况和失业的概率模型。我们确认，COVID 制度的严格性会对就业和劳动参与产生负面影响，尤其是在年轻人中，即使他们以前没有处于不利地位。工人的先前状态会影响他们在 COVID 中的结果，这意味着就业对国家的强烈依赖。在 COVID 中被解雇的人主要是那些在大流行之前没有正式工作的人。在 2020 年秋季至 2021 年年中 COVID 制度放松期间，男性的就业前景逐渐改善，但无论新冠肺炎疫情如何发展，女性在很大程度上被排除在工作机会之外，因此经历了停滞不前。在大流行期间，男女青年比非青年受到更不利的影响，面临更高的下岗风险和更低的就业前景——支持“最后进入”假设。