This study examined the relationship between house prices and the business cycle. Specifically, we examined the effect of house price and stock price in the French business cycle. After presenting the transmission channels from house price to the business cycle, we analyzed the cyclical properties of house prices and compared them with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) cycle. The question arises: are fluctuations in economic activity more sensitive to a real estate price shock (property wealth effect) or a stock price shock (stock market wealth effect)? We collected the data over the 1980Q1-2015Q4 period and investigated the effects of house price and stock price shocks on French GDP by employing the Structural VAR model. We found the evidence that house price strongly affects the GDP cycle. Indeed, their response is significantly more important than the stock price, suggesting that the housing market might contribute to the persistent propagation of the shocks hitting the economic system. The study has important implications for both academia and policymakers and offers new insights into the French experience.

中文翻译：

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房价冲击和商业周期：法国案例

本研究考察了房价与商业周期之间的关系。具体来说，我们考察了法国商业周期中房价和股票价格的影响。在介绍了房价到商业周期的传导渠道后，我们分析了房价的周期性特征，并将其与国内生产总值（GDP）周期进行了比较。问题出现了：经济活动的波动对房地产价格冲击（财产财富效应）还是股票价格冲击（股市财富效应）更敏感？我们收集了 1980 年第一季度至 2015 年第四季度期间的数据，并采用结构 VAR 模型调查了房价和股价冲击对法国 GDP 的影响。我们发现了房价强烈影响 GDP 周期的证据。的确，他们的反应比股票价格重要得多，这表明房地产市场可能有助于冲击经济系统的持续传播。该研究对学术界和政策制定者都具有重要意义，并为法国的经验提供了新的见解。