Abstract I develop an extension of a canonical epidemiology model in which the policy in place determines the probability of transmission of an epidemic disease during economic and social interaction. I use the model to evaluate the effects of isolating symptomatic individuals, of increasing social distancing and of tests such as polymerase chain reaction – PCR – or Rapid Diagnostic Test that discriminate between currently infected agents, and its combination with a serology test like Neutralization Assay that is able to discriminate between immune and vulnerable healthy individuals, together with the role of enforcement to prevent interactions involving infected but asymptomatic agents. I find that isolating symptomatic individuals has a large effect at delaying and reducing the pick of infections. The combination of this policy with a PCR test is likely to represents only a negligible improvement in the absence of enforcement, whereas with full enforcement there is an additional delaying and reduction in the pick of infections. Social distancing alone cannot achieve similar effects without incurring in enormous output losses. I explore the combined effect of social distancing at early stages of the epidemic with a following period of tests and find that the best outcome is obtained with a light reduction of human interaction for about three months together with a subsequent test of the population over 40 days.

中文翻译：

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流行病模型中的预防、社会距离和测试

摘要：我开发了一个典型流行病学模型的扩展，在该模型中，现行政策决定了经济和社会互动过程中流行病传播的可能性。我使用该模型来评估隔离有症状的个体、增加社交距离和测试（如聚合酶链反应（PCR）或快速诊断测试以区分当前感染的病原体）的效果，以及它与血清学测试（如中和化验）相结合的效果能够区分健康的免疫个体和易受伤害个体，以及执法的作用以防止涉及受感染但无症状的病原体的相互作用。我发现隔离有症状的个体对延迟和减少感染的选择有很大的影响。在没有强制执行的情况下，该政策与 PCR 测试的结合可能仅代表微不足道的改进，而在全面执行的情况下，感染的选择会额外延迟和减少。如果不造成巨大的产出损失，单靠社会疏离无法达到类似的效果。我探索了在流行病早期阶段保持社交距离和随后一段时间的测试的综合影响，并发现最好的结果是在大约三个月内稍微减少人际交往以及随后对人口进行超过 40 天的测试. 如果不造成巨大的产出损失，单靠社会疏离无法达到类似的效果。我探索了在流行病早期阶段保持社交距离和随后一段时间的测试的综合影响，并发现最好的结果是在大约三个月内稍微减少人际交往以及随后对人口进行超过 40 天的测试. 如果不造成巨大的产出损失，单靠社会疏离无法达到类似的效果。我探索了在流行病早期阶段保持社交距离和随后一段时间的测试的综合影响，并发现最好的结果是在大约三个月内稍微减少人际交往以及随后对人口进行超过 40 天的测试.