Abstract In this paper, we develop an overlapping generations model with endogenous fertility and calibrate it to the Swedish historical data in order to estimate the economic cost of the 1918–19 influenza pandemic. The model identifies survivors from younger cohorts as main benefactors of the windfall bequests following the influenza mortality shock. We also show that the general equilibrium effects of the pandemic reveal themselves over the wage channel rather than the interest rate, fertility or labor supply channels. Finally, we demonstrate that the influenza mortality shock becomes persistent, driving the aggregate variables to lower steady states which costs the economy 1.819% of the output loss over the next century.

中文翻译：

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1918-19 年瑞典流感大流行的宏观经济影响

摘要 在本文中，我们开发了一个具有内生生育力的重叠世代模型，并将其校准到瑞典的历史数据，以估计 1918-19 年流感大流行的经济成本。该模型将年轻群体的幸存者确定为流感死亡冲击后意外遗产的主要受益者。我们还表明，大流行的一般均衡效应体现在工资渠道上，而不是利率、生育率或劳动力供应渠道上。最后，我们证明流感死亡率冲击变得持续存在，推动总体变量进入较低的稳态，这使经济在下个世纪损失了 1.819% 的产出损失。