Does the yield curve have the ability to predict output and recessions? At some times and in certain places, of course! But when and where, which aspects of the curve matter most, and which economic forces account for the predictive ability are matters of dispute. Over the years, an increasingly sophisticated set of tools, both statistical and theoretical, has addressed the issue. For the United States, an inverted yield curve, particularly when the spread between the yield on 10-year and 3-month Treasuries becomes negative, has been a robust indicator of recessions in the post–World War II period. The spread also predicts future real GDP growth for the United States, although the forecast ability varies by time period in ways that appear to depend on monetary policy. The evidence is less clear in other countries, but the yield curve shows some predictive ability for the United Kingdom and Germany, among others.

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收益率曲线是否预测产出？

收益率曲线是否具有预测产出和衰退的能力？在某些时候和某些地方，当然！但是，何时何地，曲线的哪些方面最重要，以及哪些经济力量解释了预测能力，这些都是有争议的问题。多年来，一套越来越复杂的统计和理论工具已经解决了这个问题。对于美国来说，收益率曲线倒挂，尤其是当 10 年期和 3 个月期国债收益率之间的利差变为负值时，一直是二战后经济衰退的有力指标。该利差还预测美国未来的实际 GDP 增长，尽管预测能力因时间段而异，其方式似乎取决于货币政策。其他国家的证据不太清楚，