Perception biases documented in the literature often pertain to subject matters that are difficult to observe or measure such as one’s ability. We study perception biases with respect to a concrete indicator that can be objectively measured: land use changes in a local area. We examine four hypotheses about land use change perceptions and test them with farm survey data complemented by satellite data. We discover systematic biases in farmers’ perceptions about local land use changes that are consistent with motivated beliefs, and also evidence that links perceptions with intended future land conversions. Alternative explanations and policy implications are discussed.

中文翻译：

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对土地利用变化的过度认知：评估经验证据以及与决策和动机信念的联系

文献中记录的感知偏差通常与难以观察或衡量的主题有关，例如一个人的能力。我们研究了一个可以客观衡量的具体指标的感知偏差：当地的土地利用变化。我们研究了关于土地利用变化感知的四个假设，并用卫星数据补充的农场调查数据对其进行了测试。我们发现农民对当地土地利用变化的看法存在系统性偏见，这些偏见与动机信念相一致，也有证据表明将看法与预期的未来土地转换联系起来。讨论了替代解释和政策影响。