The paper explores the long versus short-term attributes of the airline industry exposure to oil price risk in a macroeconomic framework that emphasizes the interconnections between various risk factors, which is the main contribution to the research in the field. A panel ARDL model and PMG estimator have been applied on monthly data between 2007 and 2020 to investigate the long-term equilibrium relationship between airline companies’ stock prices, oil price risk, financial market volatility, currency risk, inflation, and maturity risk. The negative impact of oil price risk on airlines’ stock prices is significant, robust, and pervasive, and is coupled with a concerning exposure to the US dollar currency risk. As another contribution, the paper analyses the prospects and challenges of the airline industry in dealing with oil price risk in the post-pandemic world. The results point towards the need of the airline industry to rethink its strategic decisions in the more uncertain and unpredictable post-pandemic world, requiring a more comprehensive approach of the complex and dynamic network of risk exposures and a reconsideration of hedging policies.

中文翻译：

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油价波动和航空公司的股票收益：来自全球航空业的证据

本文探讨了航空业在宏观经济框架下面临油价风险的长期与短期属性，强调各种风险因素之间的相互联系，这是对该领域研究的主要贡献。面板 ARDL 模型和 PMG 估计量已应用于 2007 年至 2020 年的月度数据，以研究航空公司股价、油价风险、金融市场波动、货币风险、通货膨胀和到期风险之间的长期均衡关系。油价风险对航空公司股价的负面影响是显着的、强劲的和普遍的，并且伴随着令人担忧的美元货币风险敞口。作为另一项贡献，本文分析了航空业在大流行后世界应对油价风险的前景和挑战。结果表明，航空业需要重新考虑其在大流行后更加不确定和不可预测的世界中的战略决策，需要对复杂和动态的风险敞口网络采取更全面的方法，并重新考虑对冲政策。