Do presidential approval ratings affect exchange rates? The empirical purview of the vast literature on this topic has been confined to the run-up to elections. The importance of approval ratings in non-election periods has therefore been under-studied. Examining daily data on the exchange rate of the Korean won during the presidency of Park Geun Hye, we find that the won weakened (1) when Park’s ratings were low and (2) when they bounced back unexpectedly from a low level. This finding explains why Park’s impeachment did not lead to a serious panic in the won market. It seems that well before the impeachment, the exchange rate already reflected the market’s concerns about the uncertainty in the government.

中文翻译：

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总统批准评级和外汇市场

总统支持率会影响汇率吗？关于这一主题的大量文献的经验范围仅限于选举前夕。因此，对非选举期间支持率的重要性的研究不足。查看朴槿惠总统期间韩元汇率的每日数据，我们发现韩元在以下情况下走弱：（1）朴槿惠的收视率较低，（2）从低位意外反弹。这一发现解释了为什么朴槿惠的弹劾并没有导致赢得市场的严重恐慌。似乎早在弹劾之前，汇率就已经反映了市场对政府不确定性的担忧。